In the balance: CUSMA, Iran and the U.S. midterms

Analysis
Insights

Three forces shaping markets—and what they mean for your portfolio.

Share

August 24, 2026

Tasneem Azim-Khan, CFA
Chief Investment Strategist, RBC Phillips, Hager & North Investment Counsel Inc.

Please note: All comments, information and data are as of end of day, Monday, August 24, 2026.

In this video, Tasneem Azim-Khan, chief investment strategist, RBC PH&N, unpacks three forces shaping today’s market landscape and investor outlook: the evolving state of Canada-U.S. trade under CUSMA, the fallout from the U.S.-Iran conflict on global markets and energy prices and the implications of the approaching U.S. midterm elections for portfolios.

Key topics:

  • CUSMA at a crossroads: Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada have stalled again, prompting fresh tariffs on select Canadian goods, while some sectors remain exempt.
  • Iran conflict and global markets: The U.S.-Israel war with Iran has driven geopolitical volatility, disrupting key shipping lanes and pushing energy prices higher.
  • U.S. midterm elections: The upcoming midterms will see a highly competitive battle for control of Congress, shaped by inflation, soft jobs data and the unpopular U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

This document has been prepared for use by the RBC Wealth Management member companies, RBC Dominion Securities Inc. (RBC DS)*, RBC Phillips, Hager & North Investment Counsel Inc. (RBC PH&N IC), RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM), Royal Trust Corporation of Canada and The Royal Trust Company (collectively, the "Companies") and their affiliates, RBC Direct Investing Inc. (RBC DI) *, RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. (RBC WMFS) and Royal Mutual Funds Inc. (RMFI). *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Each of the Companies, their affiliates and the Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. "RBC advisor" refers to Private Bankers who are employees of Royal Bank of Canada and mutual fund representatives of RMFI, Investment Counsellors who are employees of RBC PH&N IC, Senior Trust Advisors and Trust Officers who are employees of The Royal Trust Company or Royal Trust Corporation of Canada, or Investment Advisors who are employees of RBC DS. In Quebec, financial planning services are provided by RMFI or RBC WMFS and each is licensed as a financial services firm in that province. In the rest of Canada, financial planning services are available through RMFI or RBC DS. Estate and trust services are provided by Royal Trust Corporation of Canada and The Royal Trust Company. If specific products or services are not offered by one of the Companies or RMFI, clients may request a referral to another RBC partner. Insurance products are offered through RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc., a subsidiary of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. When providing life insurance products in all provinces except Quebec, Investment Advisors are acting as Insurance Representatives of RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, Investment Advisors are acting as Financial Security Advisors of RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. is licensed as a financial services firm in the province of Quebec. The strategies, advice and technical content in this publication are provided for the general guidance and benefit of our clients, based on information believed to be accurate and complete, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This publication is not intended as nor does it constitute tax or legal advice. Readers should consult a qualified legal, tax or other professional advisor when planning to implement a strategy. This will ensure that their individual circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. Interest rates, market conditions, tax rules, and other investment factors are subject to change. This information is not investment advice and should only be used in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC advisor. None of the Companies, RMFI, RBC WMFS, RBC DI, Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.

®/TM Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. © 2026 Royal Bank of Canada. All rights reserved.


Tasneem Azim-Khan, CFA

Chief Investment Strategist, RBC Phillips, Hager & North Investment Counsel Inc.

Let’s connect


We want to talk about your financial future.

Related articles

Borders, business and bargains

Analysis 5 minute read
- Borders, business and bargains

The preservation of CUSMA is economically critical to Canada

Analysis 3 minute watch
- The preservation of CUSMA is economically critical to Canada

Canada’s 2026 economic and market outlook: A ‘Double-Double’ half full

Analysis 3 minute watch
- Canada’s 2026 economic and market outlook: A ‘Double-Double’ half full